Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
